-By Dan Scott
Recently a number of overly rosy pronouncements have been coming out of the Whitehouse in an attempt to talk up the economy and consumer confidence. In the corporate world, putting a brave face on a bad situation is called Happy Talk. The CEO comes out with the pep talk to boost flagging employee morale to keep up productivity and key employees from jumping ship. The positive spin can be come from true concern for the drag on team spirit that would make the difference between success and failure through vision and teamwork. The overly positive spin is done cynically in the knowledge the company leadership has made some bad decisions which are about to have very negative consequences and is done to prevent employees from taking any action to protect themselves. Many things can sink a company, poor attitude, low morale, bad decisions, natural disasters and fraud among the many, but how you characterize the situation speaks volumes as to your intent. In the corporate world, the dividing line between Happy Talk and vision is denial, ignorance and deception.
The Tim Geithner Stress Test for the Banks is an example of such Happy Talk. The results were positively optimistic and a number of banks were told to increase their reserves just in case there was an unexpected drop in the economy. What Geithner and the MSM didn’t say was there are other independent companies who regularly evaluate the health of banks beyond the FDIC conducting periodic evaluations of the banking industry. One such company is called Institutional Risk Analytics (IRA). IRA rates banks via an index based on the year 1995 being a rating of 1. The relative strength of the institution drops as the index number increases.
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Happy Talk”