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The Coming Depression

November 6, 2008 by 6 Comments

-By Dan Scott

Now that it seems Barack Obama has won his prize of being the president of the US, let’s see what that prize entails. Obama has made many promises, bribed (so called refundable tax credit) a significant portion of voters with $500 for their vote, talked a good game, and held close to the vest his unspoken agenda with the blessings of the MSM. Given the exit polling, it is clear none of the truly important issues were even a factor in the race such as energy, terrorism, past responsibility for the mortgage mess, etc. Obama’s victory was one of rhetoric, empty promises and slogans over substance and action backed by a staggering sum of campaign contributions. In short, Obama bought the presidency in a slickly run advertising campaign pedaling hope and change appealing to the lowest common denominator – $500.

If history is a reliable guide and taking Democrats at their word, the current economic downturn with already one quarter at negative GDP will accelerate into another negative quarter thus giving the Democrats and the MSM the bonafide recession they have been claiming the US has been in since Bush took office eight years ago. The reasons for the recession becoming prolonged into a depression will become obvious as we list what Democrats have excitedly talked about doing for quite some time now.

The Democrats are talking up a storm over needing to give another tax rebate in a pump priming effort in order to kick start the economy. Democrats and their Socialist brethren believe government is the center of the economy and thus a centrally planned approach is better than the messy decentralized approach of Capitalism. Where will this money come from, more borrowing, higher taxes or printing money? The Treasury and Federal Reserve are in a bind at this point, if they go to the market place to borrow money in the substantial sums that will be required to fulfill those promises interest rates must rise to attract the over trillion dollars the budget deficit is swelling to this year alone (one of those ugly secrets the MSM kept from telling the public.) The Fed may believe it can dictate interest rates but that must give way to the competition from other countries and financial entities needing to borrow money due to their reduced revenues as well. Interest rates will go up despite the wishes of Democrats, the Japanese learned that lesson the hard way years ago. Rising interest rates increases the cost of doing business for all companies thus an uptick in inflation passed on to the consumer and more unemployment.
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Sprinkle Down Economics

October 29, 2008 by

-By Dan Scott

Now with gasoline around $2.50 a gallon in much of the country the clock has been turned back to 2005 as far as transportation cost is concerned. However, the price of gasoline in any area is very dependent on the taxing policies of the various states. We have confusion once again with the Democrats regarding the high price of gasoline and oil versus the credit market meltdown. The Democrat’s talking points are the greedy oil speculators caused the run up of oil prices and the greedy bankers made loans to people who couldn’t afford them. As usual, Democrats are busy pointing the finger at everyone else but themselves because they aren’t willing to be a part of the solution. You can’t be part of the solution if you aren’t willing to take responsibility for your part in what went wrong, thus the Democrats have nothing in their grab bag of give-aways that will address any of the economic issues. Their only solution is to tread water until someone else comes along to save them, hence the banking, auto industry and insurance company credit bailouts. Treading water is a very short term solution that only delays the inevitable if nothing else changes.
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Bottom Up Economy

October 18, 2008 by 1 Comment

-By Dan Scott

You have heard Barack Obama’s sound bite decrying trickle down economics and calling for bottom up economics. As you shall see, this is an ironic twist that literally ends up hurting the poor. Unfortunately for Obama, someone asked a most impertinent question regarding his bottom up economics that up ended the sound bite.
The now famous Joe the Plumber with dreams of becoming a self employed business owner realized Obama’s tax the rich scheme in reality would destroy his plans and cause more unemployment.

Barack Obama: “And I Think When You Spread The Wealth Around, It’s Good For Everybody.”

JOE WURZELBACHER: “I’m a plumber. You know, I work, you know, 10, 12 hours a day. If I buy another truck and add something else to it, and you know, build the company…”

OBAMA: “Right.”

WURZELBACHER: “… you know, I’m getting taxed more and more.”
OBAMA: “Nobody likes high taxes.”

WURZELBACHER: “No, not at all.”

OBAMA: “Right? Of course not. So — but what’s happened is, is that we end up — we’ve cut taxes a lot for folks like me who make a lot more than $250,000. We haven’t given a break to folks who make less. It’s not that I want to punish your success, I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they’ve got a chance at success, too. And everybody is so pinched that business is bad for everybody. And I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

(FOX News’ “On The Record,” 10/13/08)

Isn’t it amazing what one person can do if they willingly suspend their disbelief to look past the sound bite propaganda line of the “bottom up economy”?
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Freedom of Movement

October 14, 2008 by 3 Comments

-By Dan Scott

When does the right of having a job where you live become a euphemism for totalitarianism taking away your most basic human right of freedom of movement? An interesting letter to Barack Obama was published in the Toledo Blade. It cleverly reinforced the fear of economic uncertainty and offered a socialistic solution under the guise of government policies to get you to stay put. It has been clearly demonstrated that the policies of FDR after the stock market crash of 1929 prolonged the Great Depression in the US and by extension throughout the world. The Great Depression also created the fertile ground for Hitler’s ascendency to power in Germany and Benito Mussolini’s in Italy.

I believe there is an underlying insidious agenda operating in the phrase, “where they live”. Does it not occur to anyone that the one thing liberals have always feared the most is the mobility of the populace? The fundamental premise in freedom of moment is personal responsibility. If you undermine a person’s belief they are personally responsible for their actions and therefore consequences then such a person can be controlled. If you convince a person that their fate is no longer in their hands but a victim of circumstance, then that person will do whatever you require.

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Collateralized Debt Obligations, The CDO Menace

October 4, 2008 by 4 Comments

-By Dan Scott

When the discussion turns to financial instruments people’s eyes glaze over due to the complexity of the issue. However, in this case what you don’t understand or rather what you don’t know can hurt you. Congress and the Whitehouse at this point have focused on a plan that supposedly will solve the credit lock threatening the economy with Recession. The problem is the solution proposed doesn’t address the cause but the symptoms. The upshot is while this solution will work it will only do so in a very short time frame, leaving the underlying problem unresolved and festering. Unfortunately, it may take the fall of Wells Fargo, Citicorp and HSBC who literally own TRILLIONS of dollars in CDO derivatives to finally bring Congress and the Whitehouse to their senses. Bears Stearns and Lehman Brothers already paid the price of inaction. I’m not optimistic about any of the current batch of politicians in power actually acting proactively, their track record speaks otherwise.

The Bush Administration for years has been warning about the potential of the lending abuses by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unfortunately, their warnings have been too technical, understood by only those in the financial arena. Combined with the incompetence of Rep. Barney Frank (D) and Sen. Christopher Dodd (D) the problem was not resolved and in fact the solutions were repeatedly rebuffed. Even Sen. Barack Obama in 2005 failed to grasp the issues when reforms were repeatedly requested, he dutifully voted the Democrat Party Line as an Order Taker against reform. He opposed CHANGE in the favor of the STATUS QUO. His response thus far in 2008 is more Order Taking. What was his response about going back to Washington to work out a bipartisan compromise? He said to paraphrase, I can fly to Washington for the vote and then return in time for the debate. A leader is involved in negotiations, an order taker settles with the results.
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Crisis Management, An Act Of Incompetence Or A Choice of Willfulness?

October 2, 2008 by

-By Dan Scott

The current economy is beset with many daunting problems, most of which were self inflicted wounds. Congress is debating a financial bailout plan that seems to have a huge dollar value to it in the neighborhood of $700 billion. No question that $700 billion is a serious pile of money and it has certainly piqued the ire of the taxpayer since they are the ones being told they have to fork it over. The MSM and government officials tell us daily that the world will end if Congress doesn’t pass a bailout plan. It certainly does seem the decade of the 2000’s has been a series of claimed catastrophes that demand our unqualified attention to act. The phrase, the price of inaction is greater than action has been bandied about frequently. It is almost as though some terrorist has put a gun to our heads, said you don’t get to read the fine print, sign here or I’ll pull the trigger. I don’t know about you but I dislike being threatened on every issue as though my life or my future depended on it.

This “Do it now or the earth is will come to an end” attitude smacks of crisis management using the tyranny of the urgent to force our acquiescence. It is as though we are being trained to accept every deal by government like Pavlov’s dog to respond in a certain manner. Speaking of coming catastrophes, this brings me to the curious silence by both the MSM and government officials regarding the 2008 federal budget deficit, the Medicare and Social Security financing imbalance this election season. If the current bailout could be described as the 700 pound gorilla we are currently grappling with, what about the 800 pound gorilla called the 2008 federal budget deficit, the 900 pound gorilla called Social Security and the equally big 900 pound gorilla called Medicare (Hospital Insurance Fund)? Is the MSM overly consumed with the problem de jour to the point of ignoring the other issues in context or is there something more to it? Are they attempting to train us to believe government is the answer to all of our problems by springing these upon us one at a time only when it becomes a crisis to just sign the paper?
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The Decision of the Undecideds

September 27, 2008 by

-By Dan Scott

The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama covering mostly foreign policy came to its expected outcome. McCain made the obvious points accepted by most of the country and cut through Obama’s attempts at nuance. We expected Obama to be shown for the extreme leftist, dangerous, naïve person he is and we were not disappointed. McCain was slow to begin with the economic question and definitely not on his game giving the advantage to Obama.

To say the least, both liberals and conservatives said their respective candidate won the debate. In a sense, both sides are right and wrong at the same time. From their perspective each candidate delivered the talking points they wanted to hear and thus in their minds was a point scored. This result is what we call, confirmation bias. The problem here from a strategic view is neither side has the votes to win if things stand as they are. Both candidates have essentially half the decided voters. Therefore, the election will be decided by the actual turn out of the decided voters and by those who have yet to make their decision.
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When Will The Other Shoe Drop

September 23, 2008 by 2 Comments

-By Dan Scott

As I considered a recent article by Warner Todd Huston on Obama’s misquoting McCain over his position on reforming Social Security it raised the issue of when the next shoe will drop on the taxpayer. When George W Bush raised the issue of Social Security reform early on, what was the Democrats response? Here is a brief Explanation of Private Accounts idea:
In the 2004 Debates, George W Bush addressed the issue as a starting point:
In 2004, The LAT recorded the Democrat response: “He is trying to create a crisis,” Matsui said. “The problem today is a manageable problem.” In other words – Do Nothing, there is no problem.
The same response again in 2005: Democrats Blast Bush On Social Security. Of course, we in the conservative community have been discussing these issues forever and with the compromising ineffectual help of Republicans in Congress we are still only talking about it.

Wasn’t this the same response the Democrats had with the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FMs)? The Democrats claimed there was no problem with the FMs and thus stonewalled reform when it could have made a difference, as we see they also made the exact same claims regarding Social Security when Bush raised the issue of reform! Everyone is shocked at the $700 billion proposed bailout of toxic mortgages. It seems the Party of Change is actually the Party of the Status Quo. The receipts for Social Security are dropping every year approaching 2017, the year in which receipts equal outlays. The significance of this is not just Social Security funding but the effect on the budget deficit. This year the budget deficit is projected to be $800 billion due to the slowing economy. Does that lack of forward thinking by Democrats give you comfort in their leadership abilities? Isn’t one of the marks of leadership to be proactive instead of reactive? Based on their track record so far, I would say their leadership is reactive. At this time the Democrats are still opposed to Social Security reform:
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Birds Of A Feather Flock Together

September 20, 2008 by 12 Comments

-By Dan Scott

Give credit where credit is due, blame the Democrats for their equality of outcome incompetence. A blind person could see more than the Democrat cronies who were running Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FMs) up to now. There is none so blind as those who refuse to see. The Democrat’s ideological blinder was the Equality of Outcome policy they implemented to push home ownership to people who simply weren’t capable of being homeowners. In 2003, the Bush Administration tried to head off the problem with the FMs but Democrats would have none of it, the NYT recorded their excuses for posterity. Significant details must still be worked out before Congress can approve a bill. Among the groups denouncing the proposal today were the National Association of Home Builders and Congressional Democrats who fear that tighter regulation of the companies could sharply reduce their commitment to financing low-income and affordable housing.
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Rising Unemployment and Illegal Immigration

September 13, 2008 by 2 Comments

-By Dan Scott

I have been pondering the unemployment issue for a while, especially the El Centro, CA figure of 23.3%… We all know an illegal worker is NOT allowed to draw unemployment benefits. But something here just doesn’t make sense. We keep on viewing the world with a double standard where we as law abiding citizens assume those who draw government benefits and those who give them are doing so according to the Law. I believe this to be a totally false assumption.

We keep finding out via the Sanctuary City movement, people and officials are breaking the law contrary to our assumptions.

  1. It is illegal to cross the border, but millions do it anyway.
  2. It is illegal for a non citizen to work without a permit/green card, but millions do it anyway.
  3. It is illegal to fill out government forms under false pretenses but millions have done so on the I-9.
  4. It is illegal to use someone else’s social security number, but millions do so anyway to get a job.
  5. It is illegal to misrepresent your citizenship status in obtaining a driver’s license, yet we have governors prepared to literally look the other under the guise of bringing them out of the shadows.
  6. We still have police departments directed not to hand over illegal immigrants to ICE and NOT to ask regarding their immigration status in the first place.

Let’s be clear about the above activities, most of them are felonies with prison time in excess of one year:
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Obama Gets A ZERO!

September 6, 2008 by 4 Comments

-By Dan Scott

The master of rhetoric, Barack Obama has been talking up a storm how he is going to cut taxes for 95% of Americans, create jobs with alternative energy and give everyone affordable health care among other things. The great Democrat gift bag is to be opened with something for everyone. Of course he is going to do all this by raising taxes on the rich and the oil companies. One would think by his effervescence and popularity that he has been a great success helping the poor with an impressive track record to show for it. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth as it seems Obama is as hazy as a projected image upon a screen. Without the prompts of a teleprompter and a fawning media, Obama is just an empty suit.

I came across a very interesting website by CORE, the Congress of Racial Equality. http://www.stopwaronpoor.org/home.aspx To my surprise they had a very Republican message for a group that is normally a Democrat Party constituency. Did anyone know they had a demonstration on July 28th? Why did the MSM ignore them? What’s their message?

An excerpt from Chairman Roy Innis’ speech:

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The Cost Of The Drilling Ban

September 5, 2008 by 5 Comments

-By Dan Scott

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US imported 3,661,404,000 barrels of crude oil in 2007. That’s royalties the US Treasury didn’t collect, directly added to the annual budget deficit and ultimately the national debt. So how much money did the Democrats with their drilling ban cost the US Treasury last year? The bigger question is how much would the price of oil drop to if the US Congress had gotten it’s act together and stopped playing politics as our friends at CORE are so upset about?

According to Representative John Peterson (R) of Pennsylvania’s 5th District, the current going royalty rate is 15.17% on the cost of barrel of oil. (See PDF file)Before we start, the essential premise of Representative Peterson’s claim of $ 2.5 trillion over five years is based on the recent peak cost of oil and natural gas projected into the past. He was using the past five years of consumption by keeping the drilling ban thus denying the rest of the world that oil for their use.
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Liberal Policy Failures

August 27, 2008 by 6 Comments

-By Dan Scott

I always find the audacity of liberals amazing when they spout their pantheon of myths like, oil free economy, the US has no energy policy, the economy is in recession, illegal immigration is good, unions protect workers, health care is out of control, the rich aren

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Energizing the Base

August 25, 2008 by 1 Comment

-By Dan Scott

While John McCain is considering his choices for Vice President (the lucky one to be named on his birthday) he still has not energized the base of the Republican Party. Within my memory, there has not been a GOP nominee that has so created an environment of malaise in the base as this current election season. So far, John McCain’s only saving grace in this campaign is the hatred that Obama and Clinton supporters feel for each other. Essentially, whether John McCain wins on November 4th will almost entirely depend on which group of Democrats are the most offended by the other’s favorite nominee so they either stay home on election day or vote for McCain out of spite for the other. That’s not saying much for McCain since he doesn’t really seem to be capitalizing on the energy issue the Democrats basically gifted him with a nicely wrapped present, bow tie and card saying congratulations, you’ve won!

To say the least, it seems John McCain so far has approached this election with the intent of fighting with one arm tied behind his back. He has taken the conservative base for granted thinking they won’t vote for a Democrat or consider staying home on election day so they’re stuck with me. Well John, right back at you! This perceived attitude of McCain is a serious lack of leadership on his part. Whether the perception is real or imagined, the point is John McCain hasn’t demonstrated leadership to the conservative base otherwise they would follow his lead. Eisenhower laid out some basic principles of leadership:
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Egg on Their Faces

August 13, 2008 by 2 Comments

-By Dan Scott

The Edwards scandal has revealed for public viewing many things about today’s politics which those more cynical among us knew instinctually. We held back because we didn’t want to come off as conspiracy loons like Mel Gibson in the movie, Conspiracy Theory. Most of us who follow the political drama are continually cataloging the various pieces of the puzzle to connect the dots as it were to look ahead to the final game plan.

This week the dots are falling into line as we arrange more of those seemingly disconnected stories. The stories of note are the ones where John Edwards finally admits the obvious and Harold Wolfson spills the beans. Back in February I noted the clever game being played by the media using the Deselection process to eliminate candidates they didn’t like.This deselection process choked off undesirable candidates by smothering much of the coverage they should have gotten. The MSM excused their actions by claiming they only needed to cover the more popular candidates and not clutter the airwaves and pages with no name candidates they deemed the public had little interest. Now it seems the MSM kept one candidate (Edwards) in the running to deliberately siphon off votes from another candidate (Clinton) they wanted to loose.

The NE (National Enquirer) followed up on a tip regarding John Edwards having an affair. The NE’s reporters did some good old fashioned investigative journalism, which seems to be an oddity these days and found that indeed John Edwards was committing adultery, inappropriately using his position to hire his paramour, arranged substantial monthly payments, it seems fathered a child with a woman not his wife and then lied about it when confronted. Now there is nothing of great news worthiness in and of itself regarding a philandering politician. However, this year being an election year anything regarding a candidate is newsworthy and especially if the candidate presents themselves as the clean cut moral edifice as John Edwards has. However, we should not be too quick to focus on John Edwards because he is not the real story here, but how the story was handled.
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Wind Power Sales Hype

August 1, 2008 by 3 Comments

-By Dan Scott

When I reviewed the alternative energy options I quickly dismissed wind turbines based on the Danish experience of 40% run time. It seems my dismissal was a little too hasty from a lack of considering other country’s experiences to this problem of reliability. I recently came across some very interesting articles discussing the problem the EU has had in two other of it’s member countries on the Alternative Energy bandwagon and I did not truly appreciate the depth of wind power’s inability to provide reliability.

According to the writer of this blog, who parsed a report from a German wind turbine operator E.on Energie

As wind power capacity rises, the lower availability of the wind farms determines the reliability of the system as a whole to an ever increasing extent. Consequently the greater reliability of traditional power stations becomes increasingly eclipsed.

As a result, the relative contribution of wind power to the guaranteed capacity of our supply system up to the year 2020 will fall continuously to around 4% (FIGURE 7). In concrete terms, this means that in 2020, with a forecast wind power capacity of over 48,000MW (Source: dena grid study), 2,000MW of traditional power production can be replaced by these wind farms.
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