-By Warner Todd Huston
On Wednesday The Hill reported on a new poll it has conducted of the 2010 midterms with initial focus on 12 districts held by freshmen Democrats and the news isn’t good for those incumbent Dems scrutinized. On the other hand, the poll seems to show that it isn’t pat that Republicans will necessarily run away with it all either.
On Wednesday The Hill reported that in 11 of the initial 12 races polled, Republicans are leading Democrat incumbents. In the 12th, the candidates are tied. While this may seem good for the GOP the downside is that none of the Republicans are polling over 50%.
However, a long held axiom states that an incumbent that can’t reach at lest 50% in the polls generally is in major trouble for re-election and if these polls show GOP leads in each case with not one of these incumbent Dems reaching the 50% mark, that says quite a lot about these midterms.
According to The Hill, the poll also shows that Obamacare is hurting Democrats. “A majority of voters in key battleground districts favor repeal of the legislative overhaul that Congress passed this year.”
To the question of repeal of Obamacare, 56% agreed with repeal and only 32% said no to repeal.
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New The Hill Poll: 12 Freshman Democrat Held Districts Show Major GOP Gains”