John Armor

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Pierce John Francis Xavier Flanigan, III

October 15, 2008 by

-By John Armor

Pierce Flanigan died suddenly of a stroke. Wednesday of this week. He was my lifelong friend. But this is about his life, not his death.

To save much time in a complex story about the Flanigan men, I wrote part of this story in 2005, with the title, “Condi Rice & Pierce Flanigan’s Father’s Hat,” about Pierce’s father’s death. It also introduces the one story about Pierce when he was 12 years old, that I offer as a symbol of the man,
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Prices, Politicians, and Common Sense

October 5, 2008 by

-By John Armor

I’ve watched the stock market go up and down lately like a giant yo-yo. I’ve followed the details of how and why the so-called bailout failed in the House early this week, and will probably pass the Senate on Wednesday, and possibly the House a day later. In revised form, of course.

But there’s an aspect of this situation which applies to the bad mortgages, whose failures led to the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And applies to the failures of Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, AIG, Wachovia, the House of Representatives, the Senate, the White House, and both presidential campaigns.

What is the common denominator of all these failures? It is rapid decline in prices of mortgages, bundled mortgages, and businesses which trade on bundled mortgages, and finally, politicians who are rented by such businesses. The part of these related disasters which no one in the press has bothered to discuss, is basic.

What are prices?
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All’s Foul in Love and Politics

September 30, 2008 by

-By John Armor

Alexander Pope’s original quote was, of course, “all’s fair in love and war,” meaning you can get away with anything in those two areas. Now, as we all know, the entire economy of the United States is threatened with collapse because of supposed “errors and outright fraud on Wall Street.”

Let’s step back a bit. The crisis began with the financial collapse and federal take-over of the two “private” organizations which insured and/or bundled and marketed a major part of all home mortgages in the US. These two organizations had gone along for decades, serving the public one mortgage at a time. What brought Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to “suddenly” collapse?

A decade ago, Congress changed the rules of operation of both institutions. It ordered banks to broaden their lending into areas where the risks were greater, and to make loans to borrowers they previously thought would not pay those mortgages when they came due. The two institutions would then buy those loans.

Then, those loans were bundled into pools and sold on national and international markets. They were attractive, because they paid high interest rates, because they were, after all, high risk loans. The mortgages had low or no down payments. So all it took was a downturn in the housing markets and many of these loans went below zero in value. The home owners walked away. The banks were left with piles of bad paper.
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The Birthday Last Wednesday

September 18, 2008 by

-By John Armor

Confessions of a Very Old Man

My name is Benjamin. 
Here I lie in Philadelphia. 
I caught lightning with a kite. 
I wrote an Almanac. 
I perfected a postal service. 
I coaxed a treaty with France. 
But most important of all, 
221 years ago last week 
I encouraged 39 men 
To sign a four-page document 
To give you a republic, 
If you can keep it.

Yes, the 17th of September was the 221st birthday of the Constitution, and I choose to talk about it through the three great contributions that Benjamin Franklin made to that document. Plus, of course, his summary comment on the steps of Independence Hall when the delegates were leaving for the last time,

A woman approached Dr. Franklin and said, “What kind of government have you given us?” He replied, “A republic, if you can keep it.”
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I, Obama

September 16, 2008 by 1 Comment

-By John Armor

Remember the PBS series special on the Roman Emperor, Claudius? The title, which captured the style of his governance, “I, Claudius.” It was a 13-part series on Masterpiece Theater. How many of you saw it? Let’s not always see the same hands.

Well, almost all of you remember some of the history of the Roman Emperors. They ranged from mad and murderous, like Nero, to rational and effective, like Augustus. Hold that thought, and we’ll get to today’s subject.

A good friend, Duncan Parham, is a man of eclectic interests. One of those is rare coins. Last weekend he showed me a catalogue of a major New York dealer, which had coins going back to the Ptolemic regimes in Egypt and the Eutruscans in Italy. What particularly interested me were the Roman Emperor coins. They had coins depicting each the Emperors, many at reasonable prices.
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The Straight-Shooting Governor

September 5, 2008 by

-By John Armor

I wasn’t going to talk about presidential politics for a long while, especially since my prediction last year ago of a Giuliani / Hillary Clinton race, with America’s Mayor winning narrowly. Wow, did I miss the mark on that one.

Wednesday of this week I got a call from a young woman who said she was a pollster for the Democratic Party of North Carolina. After a little back and forth, I was satisfied that this was a real poll, and I answered her questions.

The fact that she didn’t ask any demographic questions at the end raised doubts about the legitimacy of the call. A pollster should ask questions about whether I voted in past elections and which ones, to determine whether I’m a likely voter. She should have asked my age, education, and income level, among other questions which allow calculation of how representative the responders to a poll are, as a group. But that’s not what I came to talk about.
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