-By Warner Todd Huston
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton by upwards to 10 points according to polling guru Nate Silver.
Silver, the proprietor of the widely followed data crunching site FiveThirtyEight blog, finds that for the first time Trump is a clearly in the lead receiving a post convention bump putting him at 55.9 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 44 percent.
The odds suggests to Silver that if the election were today Trump would win the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire among others to take 285 Electoral College votes in the process. It only takes 270 votes to win the White House.
Silver’s calculations for his “Now-cast” election forecast are not based on a nationwide election polling but on his forecast of the results in each state including the all-important swing states. He still shows a Hillary win based on his “polls only” and his “polls plus forecast” models.
So, despite the standings in the polls as he feels they appear today — months away from the actual election — Silver still feels that Clinton has a 53.7 percent chance to win in November. But even that is way down from the near 80 percent chance the polls told him she would win only a few months ago.
Silver’s reckoning is also reflected in the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls which shows Trump leading Clinton post GOP convention by .2 percentage points. This marks only the second time Trump was seen leading Clinton the RCP calculations.
A post GOP convention poll by CNN also gave Trump the lead with the real estate mogul topping Hillary 44 to 39 percent. And according to CNN this is the first post convention poll bounce it has measured since the year 2000.
As the Democrat National Convention kicks off with such disastrous results, it may turn out that even with its own troubles the GOP convention will do less damage to its party than the Democrat convention will do to Hillary.
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“The only end of writing is to enable the reader better to enjoy life, or better to endure it.”
–Samuel Johnson
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Warner Todd Huston is a Chicago based freelance writer. He has been writing news, opinion editorials and social criticism since early 2001 and before that wrote articles on U.S. history for several American history magazines. Huston is a featured writer for Andrew Breitbart’s Breitbart News, and he appears on such sites as RightWingNews.com, CanadaFreePress.com, BizPac Review, and many, many others. Huston has also appeared on Fox News, Fox Business Network, CNN, and many local TV shows as well as numerous talk radio shows throughout the country.
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