-By John Armor
Let us take two sources – the statements made by Barack Obama as a candidate and the lessons of history – combine them and make some predictions. The results are not pretty.
These three results — a new World War, a new Great Depression, and permanent damage to the Constitution – are given in decreasing order of damage to the United States. That happens to be the reverse of their odds of happening. Though to me, as a student of the US Constitution, the last item is still critically bad.
Based on his repeated comments about Iran and Pakistan, Obama will coddle our sworn enemy, Iran, and will invade and antagonize our shaky but critical ally, Pakistan. Yes, I know we have done cross-border raids into Pakistan’s lawless border territory. But we have kept those in the lowest possible profile to avoid antagonizing a critical ally whose population is mostly Muslim and who possesses working nuclear weapons.
Either over a nuclear Iran, or as a result of an induced revolt in Pakistan, we are likely to be in a global war with the Muslims within a year of Obama being sworn into office. Pick up any book on the events which lead to World War II, Read the chapter on Neville Chamberlain. Then you will know more than Obama does about geopolitical reality.
Odds of a world war between the civilized nations and the uncivilized ones, 50 percent.
In the last quarter the Gross National Product of the US declined by 0.3 percent. It is a near certainty that the GNP report for the 4th quarter will also show a decline, meaning that we will actually be in a recession. But, as Dr. Thomas Sowell pointed out, it will at that point be a mild recession.
How does Obama propose to deal with this situation? He proposes protectionist foreign trade policies and higher taxes.
What does history teach us? Pick up any book on this history of the Great Depression in the US. Look in the index for taxes, Herbert Hoover, and the Hawley-Smoot Tariff. The policies that Obama says he is going to carry out are the worst choices to make, unless the intention is deliberately turn a mild recession into a bone-rattling, deep depression.
Odds of a new Great Depression as a result of Obama becoming President, 70 percent, though it may take more than a year to become evident to the editors of the NY Times.
Obama has made clear that he will appoint judges, and Justices to the Supreme Court, who will alter their decisions depending on who the parties in the case are. Senator Chuck Shumer, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee which reviews and recommends judicial appointees to the whole Senate, has taken the same position.
Everyone reading this is familiar with the statute of Justice as a woman in a flowing robe. In one hand she holds a sword, because justice represents the power of the state to decide between civil parties and to punish under the criminal law. In her other hand, she raises high a set of scales. These represent the idea that she will decide the case before her on the law and the facts, without fear or favor.
Most importantly, Justice wears a blindfold. This represents the idea that she will NOT decide a case based on who the parties are who appear before her. She will obey the law and follow the facts. No more, no less. Yet Obama has made clear his intention to appoint judges/Justices who will do the opposite.
Not just all judges, but all public officials at all levels, take an oath of office to preserve and defend the Constitution of the United States. That Constitution is, as it says in its text, “the supreme law.” Yet, Obama is committed to appoint judges who will not respect the Constitution, but instead will do whatever they want to do personally.
Odds that judges will be appointed who will wipe their feet on the Constitution, rather than preserve and defend the Constitution, 100 percent. Since judges serve for life, these judges willing to violate their oaths of office will remain on the bench for 30 years or so, far beyond the four years of the Obama Administration.
Millions of lives, billions of dollars, and the very future of the US Constitution are at stake. I hope my predictions prove to be wrong. But with the last one, I am certain with every fiber of my being, that I am correct.
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John Armor is a graduate of Yale, and Maryland Law School, and has 33 years practice at law in the US Supreme Court. Mr. Armor has authored seven books and over 750 articles. Armor happily lives on a mountaintop in the Blue Ridge. He can be reached at: John_Armor@aya.yale.edu