-By Gary Krasner
As I write this, Donald Trump is meeting with GOP brass today. They want him to sign a “pledge” to abstain from running as a third party candidate. The other candidates have signed it.
But other candidates didn’t meet with the GOP. Trump did. Why? Because Trump had terms. Trump doesn’t agree to something unless there are terms he favors.
The terms offered by the GOP are one-sided. They want Trump to promise to do something that benefits them. But Trump never gives up leverage without a price. He’s a businessman.
So I believe Trump’s lawyers drafted a rider to the GOP contract (i.e. “pledge”). And here is what it reads (or words to that effect):
In exchange for Trump’s promise not to run as a third party candidate, the GOP promises not to select another candidate if Trump wins the majority of delegates, fair and square, from the state primary elections and caucuses.
The current rules, set up by the GOP, allows the party bigwigs to legally choose a candidate other than the one who obtained the most delegates. Mostly with the use of super delegates.
But Trump is no chump. His people know the rules of the convention’s nominating process. So that is the only way Trump would sign the contract. And it was in the interests of both parties to keep the rider secret, at least as long as possible. Trump appears like a team player and the party doesn’t lose face—and they may inherit Trump voters if a non-Bush, immigration hawk wins the nomination. If the GOP brass have brains, that would be a rational preference.
Trump is seen as the great negotiator. He wrote the Art of the Deal. He cannot be seen as a loser. So he signed that contract, but with the caveat rider attached. Trust me.
Trump’s next move? He should tout the fact that he’s a real Republican now, but that he will not actively support Jeb Bush if Jeb is nominated. This is important. Trump cannot be seen as caving in to GOP leaders. He will not be violating the contract by doing this, because the contract restricts him solely from running on a third party ticket.
Trump can’t keep repeating that Jeb is low energy. He must augment that label by saying that Jeb is not a fighter. Presidential candidate Jeb would be deferential to the black or female or minority Democrat nominee. Like McCain and Romney, Jeb would be too fearful of being labeled a misogynist or racist. It would be a replay of the losing campaigns against Obama. THAT must be Trump’s next line of attack.
And for good measure, Trump must announce that his first day’s phone call will be to accept the congratulations from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker John Boner, and then tell them to start packing, because they’re finished as party leaders. Trump heads the party and he wants legislators leading the party to fight for the conservative agenda.
When Trump does all that, he’ll ensure his victory over the lame, incumbents who’ve betrayed the party’s base that got them elected.