-By Collin Corbett
Jon Huntsman, fighting to gain traction in his presidential bid, took a jab at frontrunner Mitt Romney in New Hampshire this week saying, in reference to the recent debt ceiling debate, “to dodge the debate or to wait until the debate is over effectively and to take a side, I don’t consider that to be leadership.” Huntsman is absolutely right, but when it comes to Romney’s Presidential campaign, he’s following the straightest possible path to the Presidency. Romney’s best strategy, running contrary to what seems logical, is to stay out of the Primary fray, mostly out of the news, and as far away from controversy as possible. He may not be creating as much of a buzz or leading on current issues as many would like, but right now he’s showing definite leadership in the one area that matters most to his campaign: the polls. Hovering above 20% and in first in all major polls, Romney does not need to stick his head out in a debate or attack his opponents, a stark contrast from where he stood four years ago.
Around this time during the 2008 primaries, Romney trailed Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain in every poll and was forced to run a momentum-based campaign: the same strategy many of the challengers have to employ today. Since coming up short then, Romney has essentially been running as the front-runner for the 2012 nod, all while avoiding the over exposure that could allow voters to outright reject him and move on to another candidate.
A majority of Republican Primary voters are looking for someone, anyone but Romney. Romney hasn’t even put much effort into energizing the base, knowing that eventually Primary voters will come home. Following the GOP South Carolina debate in May, a Fox News focus group hosted by Frank Luntz expressed some disappointment that Romney had decided to forgo the early debate. However, Romney pulled 24% of likely Primary voters in a PPP poll that same week, fending off Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin who polled second and third respectively. It is obvious that regardless of what Romney does, or doesn’t do (absent a misstep), he won’t see serious movement in the polls. He needs to let voters flirt with other candidates for a while before they eventually come home and marry him, or they’ll never be content.
We’ve seen many candidates rise and fall (to various degrees) as the Romney alternative, from Newt Gingrich to Tim Pawlenty to Jon Huntsman… not to mention the many rumored candidates such as Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and John Thune. The latest Romney alternative, Michele Bachmann, is taking her turn in the fire as the public learns more about both her positives and her negatives. Her turn as the flavor of the month is about to end, though, as Rick Perry takes his turn on the “anybody-but-Romney” stage in an effort to be “the one.” All the while, Romney can continue to focus his energy raising money and looking Presidential by focusing on the big picture items facing our country while directly attacking the President through public appearances and powerful online ads. In contrast, his Primary opponents look like they are squabbling amongst themselves over which color drapes to buy.
The position in which Romney finds himself is as comfortable as a candidate could ask for in an open primary race. The Romney camp will all but concede Iowa, likely to Bachmann, having lowered expectations to the level where a top 2 finish is considered a win. He will win New Hampshire, putting him in prime position going into Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida. The other Republican candidates are putting every ounce of their resources into the five early states hoping they can pick up enough momentum to raise the funds and gain the support necessary to quickly put together operations in all the subsequent states. Meanwhile, Romney already has operations in those states and merely needs to place high in each early state while ensuring no candidate runs the table. If successful, when the race enters Super Tuesday and the rest of the candidates run out of resources, Romney can and likely will run the table.
The central idea is that no other candidate has either the appeal or ability to present themselves as an alternative to Romney and propel themselves ahead, thus forcing voters to eventually settle with Romney. And he doesn’t care why they support him; he only cares that they eventually do.
The biggest threats at this moment are Bachmann, Perry, and Huntsman. Bachmann will win Iowa, so if she could use that win to build momentum going into the next 4 contests she could pull enough tea party votes to have a chance. It isn’t likely since she is not expected to do well in New Hampshire, and Perry’s presence in the race hurts her as it gives her competition for the evangelical and very conservative vote. Perry could marshal enough tea party and evangelical support to play well in nearly every early state, putting him in a very good position, but his problem will arise if he is painted as “very” or even “too conservative” as this will hurt his mainstream appeal amongst voters just getting to know him beyond a few YouTube clips. Huntsman, a more moderate candidate, faces different challenges as he focuses all of his resources on the early states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida (with the last two being the most vital to his strategy), but to date he’s yet to break into the mainstream. What’s becoming clear is that the state that holds to key to this election is South Carolina due to the fact that it’s the first state where the winner isn’t already clear, and candidates are showing they recognize this dynamic as evidenced by Perry making his announcement there on Saturday.
However this race plays out, Romney’s strategy speaks volumes about the candidates the GOP has fielded in 2012. Many potential candidates have made the decision that this is not their time, instead looking towards 2016. However, there can only be one candidate in 2016, so while it is understandable for younger Republican stars with long futures like Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Bobby Jindal to bide their time, it is not as justifiable for those with shorter shelf lives who could have run and won now. This race would’ve been so much more robust with candidates like Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, and John Thune providing a substantial challenge to Romney’s four-year-campaign. What we could be left with is a nominee by default, for better or for worse, which does not inspire much confidence in a Republican victory in 2012.
Competition in primaries is good, especially for the Party of the free-market. A robust Primary fight would ensure a strong, seasoned nominee well prepared for a dogfight of a General Election. So while Romney very well may be the candidate who provides the best chance at defeating President Obama, we all lose with this (so far) weak field of alternatives.
But, hey, we’re Republicans: we fall in line. We leave the falling in love for the Democrats.
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Collin Corbett is founder of Cor Strategies, a Chicago-based communications consulting firm.