Me thinks there is a method to his madness

-By Dan Scott

It is hard to view world events, specifically the actions of Iran, and not conclude the leaders of Iran are insane. Why would they deliberately provoke potential military action by the US in view of what happened to Saddam in Iraq? Why are they still busily enriching uranium? Surely they recognize if the US decided to take military action, the outcome would not be in doubt. So why is Iran playing this game of brinksmanship?

Why take 15 British military personnel hostage, thus inviting a military response? Is it because they think nothing will come of it? Why is Iran engaging in provocative behavior with their speed boats near US Naval Ships in the Straights of Hormuz? Why is Iran ramping up supply of IEDs again in Iraq?

This is not the first time the Iranians have done this either. Given the British weak or less than robust response, one comes to the conclusion that the Iranians knew this would be result. Watching the Iranian’s actions toward, the British, the US or the UN reminds me of a dithering parent not able to maintain their parental authority or in this case respect of an unruly child. As any seasoned parent of children realizes, the child is testing the borders of how far they can go. A child’s internal personal self worth and security is determined by the firm boundaries a parent sets. In fact, when a child can not find the boundaries of parental authority, the child goes completely wild to their own detriment. One only needs to look to juvenile delinquency to see this. In Iran’s case, just as Saddam’s Iraq before them, they are testing the boundaries of international resolve. Saddam became wild and unruly precisely because he was allowed to misbehave too long.

Why the testing? Why does anyone do anything? It’s called self interest. The Iranian economy is in shambles due to the incompetence of the mullahs. As in all authoritarian governments, it’s who you know and patronage of the few who prosper and the average person’s living standard drops. One needs look no further than Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe to see the end results. The living standard of the average Iranian is less now than under the Shah almost 30 years ago. As long as the Iranian people can not have a basis of comparison to their neighbors, they will quietly share their misery and be content. However, that luxury for the Iranian leadership, if one can call them that, has been removed with the departure of Saddam. Now that Iraq is experiencing Capitalism, their standard of living is rising, not falling as in Iran. Remember from Gulf War One to Saddam’s ouster in 2003, the Iraqis were under the UN Oil for Food program, Saddam continued to get rich and the average Iraqi got poorer. Thus during that period the Iranian leadership had nothing to worry about., heck the other side of Iran, that being Afghanistan provided comic relief as the Taliban drove the Afghan people back to the 7th century.

Which brings us back to the events of this month. The Iranian leadership must redirect the focus of their population from their misery and just as importantly, they need the income that oil brings. It is in Iran’s interest that the price of oil go up. I contend that all the events we have seen over the past three years are a calculated pushing of the borders to drive up the price of oil and misdirect the focus of the average Iranian. Viewed in this light, it makes perfect sense to ferment terrorism in Iraq, it makes perfect sense to drive up the tensions and thus the price of oil. The nuclear issue probably is the best of all worlds for the Iranian leadership, imagine the mullahs dangling the threat of nuclear action every time they desire and thus pushing up the price of oil, why you couldn’t get a better means to keep the tensions going without hurting yourself as with a self imposed oil embargo. I would suggest even the Israeli-Hezbollah war had it’s primary purpose in keeping up the price of oil. Here’s an interesting chart showing the Monthly Average Price of oil 1978 to present (WTI)

The Madhatter is enjoying the scene of the ants running in all directions, once the little ants start calming down and get ordered, out comes the stick to stir them up again. This is all just a very calculated game to Ajad which he enjoys immensely seeing the pain he is inflicting on the US and the dupes in Europe. There are two ways to take the pleasure out the game for him, take out Iran’s one and only gasoline refinery, he can’t afford to attack anyone in the Persian Gulf lest the gasoline tankers stop coming to Iran to prop up his tea party. There is second thing we all know would stop them in their tracks, and that would be an economic embargo, i.e. a self imposed embargo of Iranian oil by Europe and Japan. Without oil, the mullahs loose control and thus ends the funding for terrorism world wide. Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the world, hands down.

So either we choose now to end the supposed madness by biting the bullet or we will have to do it later when they have their atomic bomb. If we choose to do this latter then we are faced with two alternatives: Military intervention or an oil free economy. It will take decades to achieve an oil free economy and thus we will have to live with their behavior while we and the world switch energy sources. A military intervention while providing a quick end to the madness will have costs, first in the lives of our troops, more worldwide hate of the US and then the economic cost to rebuild Iran. The choices are not pleasant, so pick your poison.
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Dan Scott calls himself a “Member of the Global Capitalist Cabal preaching Capitalism and personal responsibility as the economic solution to world poverty.” He is also a member of the 14th Amendment Society — victimhood is a liberal code word for denying the civil rights of others. He is also a proud member of the Global Warming Denier Cabal, insisting that facts not agendas determine the truth.

Dan can be seen on the web at http://www.geocities.com/fightbigotry2002/ as well as http://www.geocities.com/dscott8186/saidwebpage.htm, And can be reached for comments at dscott8186@yahoo.com.


Copyright Publius Forum 2001